Estimating seroconversion rates accounting for repeated infections by approximate Bayesian computation.

This study presents a novel approach for inferring the incidence of infections by employing a quantitative model of the serum antibody response. Current methodologies often overlook the cumulative effect of an individual's infection history, making it challenging to obtain a marginal distribution for antibody concentrations. Our proposed approach leverages approximate Bayesian computation to simulate cross-sectional antibody responses and compare these to observed data, factoring in the impact of repeated infections. We then assess the empirical distribution functions of the simulated and observed antibody data utilizing Kolmogorov deviance, thereby incorporating a goodness-of-fit check. This new method not only matches the computational efficiency of preceding likelihood-based analyses but also facilitates the joint estimation of antibody noise parameters. The results affirm that the predictions generated by our within-host model closely align with the observed distributions from cross-sectional samples of a well-characterized population. Our findings mirror those of likelihood-based methodologies in scenarios of low infection pressure, such as the transmission of pertussis in Europe. However, our simulations reveal that in settings of higher infection pressure, likelihood-based approaches tend to underestimate the force of infection. Thus, our novel methodology presents significant advancements in estimating infection incidence, thereby enhancing our understanding of disease dynamics in the field of epidemiology.

When case reporting becomes untenable: Can sewer networks tell us where COVID-19 transmission occurs?

Monitoring SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater is a valuable approach to track COVID-19 transmission. Designing wastewater surveillance (WWS) with representative sampling sites and quantifiable results requires knowledge of the sewerage system and virus fate and transport. We developed a multi-level WWS system to track COVID-19 in Atlanta using an adaptive nested sampling strategy. From March 2021 to April 2022, 868 wastewater samples were collected from influent lines to wastewater treatment facilities and upstream community manholes. Variations in SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in influent line samples preceded similar variations in numbers of reported COVID-19 cases in the corresponding catchment areas. Community sites under nested sampling represented mutually-exclusive catchment areas. Community sites with high SARS-CoV-2 detection rates in wastewater covered high COVID-19 incidence areas, and adaptive sampling enabled identification and tracing of COVID-19 hotspots. This study demonstrates how a well-designed WWS provides actionable information including early warning of surges in cases and identification of disease hotspots.

Dose response for Salmonella Typhimurium and Enteritidis and other nontyphoid enteric salmonellae.

This dose response assessment combines data from 6 human challenge studies and 44 outbreaks to determine infectivity and pathogenicity of several serotypes of nontyphoid Salmonella. Outcomes focus on the major serotypes Salmonella Enteritidis and Typhimurium, showing that Typhimurium is less infectious and has a lower probability of causing acute illness in infected subjects. The dose response relation of Salmonella Enteritidis is less steep than that of Typhimurium, indicating greater heterogeneity in infectivity and pathogenicity. This study revisits an older study with less flexible methods that could not combine the widely different outcomes of challenge studies and outbreaks, and had limited capability for dealing with missing information. Reported outcomes are in a format that allows use in calculations of uncertainty for quantitative risk assessment.

Dose-response relationship of Ralstonia solanacearum and potato in greenhouse and in vitro experiments.

Ralstonia solanacearum is the causative agent of bacterial wilt of potato and other vegetable crops. Contaminated irrigation water contributes to the dissemination of this pathogen but the exact concentration or biological threshold to cause an infection is unknown. In two greenhouse experiments, potted potato plants (Solanum tuberosum) were exposed to a single irrigation with 50 mL water (non-invasive soil-soak inoculation) containing no or 102 - 108 CFU/mL R. solanacearum. The disease response of two cultivars, Kondor and HB, were compared. Disease development was monitored over a three-month period after which stems, roots and tubers of asymptomatic plants were analyzed for latent infections. First wilting symptoms were observed 15 days post inoculation in a plant inoculated with 5x109 CFU and a mean disease index was used to monitor disease development over time. An inoculum of 5x105 CFU per pot (1.3x102 CFU/g soil) was the minimum dose required to cause wilting symptoms, while one latent infection was detected at the lowest dose of 5x102 CFU per pot (0.13 CFU/g). In a second set of experiments, stem-inoculated potato plants grown in vitro were used to investigate the dose-response relationship under optimal conditions for pathogen growth and disease development. Plants were inoculated with doses between 0.5 and 5x105 CFU/plant which resulted in visible symptoms at all doses. The results led to a dose-response model describing the relationship between R. solanacearum exposure and probability of infection or illness of potato plants. Cultivar Kondor was more susceptible to brown-rot infections than HB in greenhouse experiments while there was no significant difference between the dose-response models of both cultivars in in vitro experiments. The ED50 for infection of cv Kondor was 1.1x107 CFU. Results can be used in management strategies aimed to reduce or eliminate the risk of bacterial wilt infection when using treated water in irrigation.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission in Georgia, USA, February 1-July 13, 2020.

The serial interval and effective reproduction number for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are heterogenous, varying by demographic characteristics, region, and period. During February 1-July 13, 2020, we identified 4,080 transmission pairs in Georgia, USA, by using contact tracing information from COVID-19 cases reported to the Georgia Department of Public Health. We examined how various transmission characteristics were affected by symptoms, demographics, and period (during shelter-in-place and after subsequent reopening) and estimated the time course of reproduction numbers for all 159 Georgia counties. Transmission varied by time and place but also by persons' sex and race. The mean serial interval decreased from 5.97 days in February-April to 4.40 days in June-July. Younger adults (20-50 years of age) were involved in most transmission events occurring during or after reopening. The shelter-in-place period was not long enough to prevent sustained virus transmission in densely populated urban areas connected by major transportation links.

Noroviruses are highly infectious but there is strong variation in host susceptibility and virus pathogenicity.

Noroviruses are a major public health concern: their high infectivity and environmental persistence have been documented in several studies. Genetic sequencing shows that noroviruses are highly variable, and exhibit rapid evolution. A few human challenge studies have been performed with norovirus, leading to estimates of their infectivity. However, such incidental estimates do not provide insight into the biological variation of the virus and the interaction with its human host. To study the variation in infectivity and pathogenicity of norovirus, multiple challenge studies must be analysed jointly, to compare their differences and describe how virus infectivity and host susceptibility vary. Since challenge studies can only provide a small sample of the diversity in the natural norovirus population, outbreaks should be exploited as an additional source of information. The present study shows how challenge studies and 'natural experiments' can be combined in a multilevel dose response framework. Infectivity and pathogenicity are analysed by secretor status as a host factor, and genogroup as a pathogen factor. Infectivity, characterized as the estimated mean infection risk when exposed to 1 genomic copy (qPCR unit)is 0.28 for GI norovirus, and 0.076 for GII virus, both in Se+ subjects. The corresponding risks of acute enteric illness are somewhat lower, about 0.2 (GI) and 0.035 (GII), in outbreaks. Se- subjects are protected, with substantially lower risks of infection (0.00007 and 0.015 at a dose of 1 GC of GI and GII virus, respectively). The present study shows there is considerable variability in risk of infection and especially risk of acute symptoms following infection with norovirus. These challenge and outbreak data consistently indicate high infectivity among secretor positives and protection in secretor negatives.

Children Are Exposed to Fecal Contamination via Multiple Interconnected Pathways: A Network Model for Exposure Assessment.

In recent decades, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has been widely used to assess exposure to fecal microbes and associated health risks. In this study, a multipathway exposure assessment model was developed to evaluate exposure to fecal microbes for children under 5 in highly contaminated urban environments. Children had contact with various environmental compartments. The contamination levels of these compartments were estimated from fecal indicator counts in the environmental samples. Structured observations of child behavior (including activities, locations, and time) were used to model behavioral sequences as a dynamic network. The exposure model combines behavior sequences with environmental contamination, using additional exposure factors when needed, to estimate the number of fecal microbes transferred from environmental sources to human oral ingestion. As fecal exposure in a highly contaminated urban environment consists of contributions from multiple pathways, it is imperative to study their relative importance. The model helps us better understand the characteristics of the exposure pathways that may be driven by variation in contamination and by variable behavior, like hygiene and high-risk activities. Importantly, the model also allows prediction of the quantitative effects of an intervention-the expected reduction in exposure due to infrastructural or behavioral changes-by means of scenario studies. Based on experience with this exposure model, we make specific recommendations for additional studies of child behavior and exposure factors in order to fill critical information gaps and improve the model structure and assumptions.

Correction: Time to acquire and lose carriership of ESBL/pAmpC producing E. coli in humans in the Netherlands.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0193834.].

Time to acquire and lose carriership of ESBL/pAmpC producing E. coli in humans in the Netherlands.

A subset of the study population from a cross-sectional study of carriership of ESBL/pAmpC-producing E. coli (ESBL-E) in the general population was followed up by five successive samples over an approximate half year period, leading to six samples in 333 persons. Fecal samples were cultured and analyzed for the presence of E. coli types as characterized by MLST, and ESBL/pAmpC genes were analysed by PCR and sequencing. The study included 255 persons who had a negative first sample, to allow observations of acquiring carriership of ESBL-E. Any individual record thus consisted of a series of snapshots of episodes of presence and absence of ESBL-E carriage. A survival model was built to estimate times to acquire or lose carriership, allowing for any combination of ESBL/pAmpC gene and E. coli MLST type. In carriers, the mean time to lose carriership was 1.1 (95% range 0.8-1.6) years. The estimated mean time to acquire carriership was 3.0 (95% range 1.6-6.3) years. Analysis of these times by ESBL/pAmpC gene found substantial variation among resistance genes both in persistence of carriership and in rates of acquiring carriership: blaCTX-M-1, blaCTX-M-14, blaCTX-M-15, blaCTX-M-27 and blaSHV-12 were easily acquired, but blaCTX-M-1 and blaSHV-12 were also easily lost, while blaCTX-M-15, blaCTX-M-27 and blaCMY-2 were more likely to persist. When in addition bacterial host types were included, some combinations appeared more persistent than others (blaCTX-M-1 in ST10 and ST58; blaCTX-M-14, blaCMY-2, and blaSHV-12 in ST69), or were acquired with higher frequency (blaCTX-M-14 in ST38, ST69, and ST131; blaCTX-M-15 and blaCTX-M-27 in ST131; blaSHV-12 in ST69). The relatively short duration of carriership means that when an intervention drastically reduces the exposure of humans to ESBL-E, the prevalence will be halved in 0.66 years. The observed differences between carriage rates of ESBL/pAmpC genes and E. coli strains need further investigation.

Acute illness from Campylobacter jejuni may require high doses while infection occurs at low doses.

Data from a set of different studies on the infectivity and pathogenicity of Campylobacter jejuni were analyzed with a multilevel model, allowing for effects of host species (nonhuman primates and humans) and different strains of the pathogen. All challenge studies involved high doses of the pathogen, resulting in all exposed subjects to become infected. In only one study a dose response effect (increasing trend with dose) for infection was observed. High susceptibility to infection with C. jejuni was found in a joint analysis of outbreaks and challenge studies. For that reason four outbreaks, associated with raw milk consumption, were also included in the present study. The high doses used for inoculation did not cause all infected subjects to develop acute enteric symptoms. The observed outcomes are consistent with a dose response effect for acute symptoms among infected subjects: a conditional illness dose response relation. Nonhuman primates and human volunteers did not appear to have different susceptibilities for developing enteric symptoms, but exposure in outbreaks (raw milk) did lead to a higher probability of symptomatic campylobacteriosis.

Multipathway Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to Fecal Contamination for Young Children in Low-Income Urban Environments in Accra, Ghana: The SaniPath Analytical Approach.

Lack of adequate sanitation results in fecal contamination of the environment and poses a risk of disease transmission via multiple exposure pathways. To better understand how eight different sources contribute to overall exposure to fecal contamination, we quantified exposure through multiple pathways for children under 5 years old in four high-density, low-income, urban neighborhoods in Accra, Ghana. We collected more than 500 hours of structured observation of behaviors of 156 children, 800 household surveys, and 1,855 environmental samples. Data were analyzed using Bayesian models, estimating the environmental and behavioral factors associated with exposure to fecal contamination. These estimates were applied in exposure models simulating sequences of behaviors and transfers of fecal indicators. This approach allows us to identify the contribution of any sources of fecal contamination in the environment to child exposure and use dynamic fecal microbe transfer networks to track fecal indicators from the environment to oral ingestion. The contributions of different sources to exposure were categorized into four types (high/low by dose and frequency), as a basis for ranking pathways by the potential to reduce exposure. Although we observed variation in estimated exposure (108-1016 CFU/day for Escherichia coli) between different age groups and neighborhoods, the greatest contribution was consistently from food (contributing > 99.9% to total exposure). Hands played a pivotal role in fecal microbe transfer, linking environmental sources to oral ingestion. The fecal microbe transfer network constructed here provides a systematic approach to study the complex interaction between contaminated environment and human behavior on exposure to fecal contamination.

Quantification of Salmonella Survival and Infection in an In vitro Model of the Human Intestinal Tract as Proxy for Foodborne Pathogens.

Different techniques are available for assessing differences in virulence of bacterial foodborne pathogens. The use of animal models or human volunteers is not expedient for various reasons; the use of epidemiological data is often hampered by lack of crucial data. In this paper, we describe a static, sequential gastrointestinal tract (GIT) model system in which foodborne pathogens are exposed to simulated gastric and intestinal contents of the human digestive tract, including the interaction of pathogens with the intestinal epithelium. The system can be employed with any foodborne bacterial pathogens. Five strains of Salmonella Heidelberg and one strain of Salmonella Typhimurium were used to assess the robustness of the system. Four S. Heidelberg strains originated from an outbreak, the fifth S. Heidelberg strain and the S. Typhimurium strain originated from routine meat inspections. Data from plate counts, collected for determining the numbers of surviving bacteria in each stage, were used to quantify both the experimental uncertainty and biological variability of pathogen survival throughout the system. For this, a hierarchical Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) was employed. The model system is able to distinguish serovars/strains for in vitro infectivity when accounting for within strain biological variability and experimental uncertainty.

Spatial Prediction of Coxiella burnetii Outbreak Exposure via Notified Case Counts in a Dose-Response Model.

We develop a novel approach to study an outbreak of Q fever in 2009 in the Netherlands by combining a human dose-response model with geostatistics prediction to relate probability of infection and associated probability of illness to an effective dose of Coxiella burnetii. The spatial distribution of the 220 notified cases in the at-risk population are translated into a smooth spatial field of dose. Based on these symptomatic cases, the dose-response model predicts a median of 611 asymptomatic infections (95% range: 410, 1,084) for the 220 reported symptomatic cases in the at-risk population; 2.78 (95% range: 1.86, 4.93) asymptomatic infections for each reported case. The low attack rates observed during the outbreak range from (Equation is included in full-text article.)to (Equation is included in full-text article.). The estimated peak levels of exposure extend to the north-east from the point source with an increasing proportion of asymptomatic infections further from the source. Our work combines established methodology from model-based geostatistics and dose-response modeling allowing for a novel approach to study outbreaks. Unobserved infections and the spatially varying effective dose can be predicted using the flexible framework without assuming any underlying spatial structure of the outbreak process. Such predictions are important for targeting interventions during an outbreak, estimating future disease burden, and determining acceptable risk levels.

Quantifying Contact with the Environment: Behaviors of Young Children in Accra, Ghana.

To better understand the risks of exposure for young children to fecal contamination in their environment, we systematically characterized and quantified behaviors of 154 children, 0-5 years old, in four high-density, low-income neighborhoods in Accra, Ghana. A repertoire of six different activities and five different compartments (categories of locations within the household) was developed, and about 500 hours of ordered structured observations of activities and locations of individual children were collected. These records were analyzed using a competing hazards model, estimating (Weibull) hazard rates for each state (activity/compartment combination), dependent on the present state and the preceding state. The estimated rates were used to simulate sequences of behavior and describe days in the life of a child in low-income, urban Africa. Children younger than 1 year spent most time playing or sleeping off the ground, older children frequently played on floors. Relatively little time was spent in drains or wet trash areas. Critical combinations of activities, like handwashing after defecation or before eating were estimated to occur rarely. These quantitative behavior estimates can inform future risk assessments that examine the relative roles of various fecal-oral exposure pathways in low-income urban settings.

The Use of Innovative Two-Component Cluster Analysis and Serodiagnostic Cut-Off Methods to Estimate Prevalence of Pertussis Reinfections.

Bordetella pertussis circulates even in highly vaccinated countries affecting all age groups. Insight into the scale of concealed reinfections is important as they may contribute to transmission. We therefore investigated whether current single-point serodiagnostic methods are suitable to estimate the prevalence of pertussis reinfection. Two methods based on IgG-Ptx plasma levels alone were used to evaluate the proportion of renewed seroconversions in the past year in a cohort of retrospective pertussis cases ≥ 24 months after a proven earlier symptomatic infection. A Dutch population database was used as a baseline. Applying a classical 62.5 IU/ml IgG-Ptx cut-off, we calculated a seroprevalence of 15% in retrospective cases, higher than the 10% observed in the population baseline. However, this method could not discriminate between renewed seroconversion and waning of previously infection-enhanced IgG-Ptx levels. Two-component cluster analysis of the IgG-Ptx datasets of both pertussis cases and the general population revealed a continuum of intermediate IgG-Ptx levels, preventing the establishment of a positive population and the comparison of prevalence by this alternative method. Next, we investigated the complementary serodiagnostic value of IgA-Ptx levels. When modelling datasets including both convalescent and retrospective cases we obtained new cut-offs for both IgG-Ptx and IgA-Ptx that were optimized to evaluate renewed seroconversions in the ex-cases target population. Combining these cut-offs two-dimensionally, we calculated 8.0% reinfections in retrospective cases, being below the baseline seroprevalence. Our study for the first time revealed the shortcomings of using only IgG-Ptx data in conventional serodiagnostic methods to determine pertussis reinfections. Improved results can be obtained with two-dimensional serodiagnostic profiling. The proportion of reinfections thus established suggests a relatively increased period of protection to renewed infection after clinical pertussis.

Exposure to low doses of Coxiella burnetii caused high illness attack rates: Insights from combining human challenge and outbreak data.

BACKGROUND: As a major zoonotic pathogen, characterization of the infectivity and pathogenicity of Coxiella burnetii is essential to understand Q-fever epidemiology. OBJECTIVES: We want to extend a recently published human dose response model based on experimental challenge of young adult males to include other age groups and both genders. Additionally, we can estimate the spatial distribution of exposure based on observed outbreak data. METHODS: Dose response assessment based on human challenge, is extended by including outbreak data, using location of cases as a proxy for exposure. This allows estimation of the influence of age and gender on the probability of developing symptoms of acute respiratory illness. RESULTS: In an outbreak in Switzerland, in 1983, exposure to C. burnetii was shown to depend strongly on distance from the source. The susceptibility of males to develop Q-fever decreases with age, while in females, middle-aged women appear to have the lowest risk. CONCLUSIONS: The published dose response model for Q-fever, based on experimental challenge of a small group of human volunteers, has been updated with data from a well studied outbreak. Infectivity estimates remain high, and even low doses (of 10 or fewer organisms) cause a high risk of illness.

First step in using molecular data for microbial food safety risk assessment; hazard identification of Escherichia coli O157:H7 by coupling genomic data with in vitro adherence to human epithelial cells.

The potential for using whole genome sequencing (WGS) data in microbiological risk assessment (MRA) has been discussed on several occasions since the beginning of this century. Still, the proposed heuristic approaches have never been applied in a practical framework. This is due to the non-trivial problem of mapping microbial information consisting of thousands of loci onto a probabilistic scale for risks. The paradigm change for MRA involves translation of multidimensional microbial genotypic information to much reduced (integrated) phenotypic information and onwards to a single measure of human risk (i.e. probability of illness). In this paper a first approach in methodology development is described for the application of WGS data in MRA; this is supported by a practical example. That is, combining genetic data (single nucleotide polymorphisms; SNPs) for Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157 with phenotypic data (in vitro adherence to epithelial cells as a proxy for virulence) leads to hazard identification in a Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS). This application revealed practical implications when using SNP data for MRA. These can be summarized by considering the following main issues: optimum sample size for valid inference on population level, correction for population structure, quantification and calibration of results, reproducibility of the analysis, links with epidemiological data, anchoring and integration of results into a systems biology approach for the translation of molecular studies to human health risk. Future developments in genetic data analysis for MRA should aim at resolving the mapping problem of processing genetic sequences to come to a quantitative description of risk. The development of a clustering scheme focusing on biologically relevant information of the microbe involved would be a useful approach in molecular data reduction for risk assessment.

Estimating seroprevalence of human papillomavirus type 16 using a mixture model with smoothed age-dependent mixing proportions.

BACKGROUND: The presence in serum of antibodies to viral antigens is generally considered a well-defined marker of past infection or vaccination. However, analyses of serological data that use a cut-off value to classify individuals as seropositive are prone to misclassification bias, in particular when studying infections with a weak serological response, such as the sexually transmitted human papillomavirus (HPV). METHODS: We analyzed the serological concentrations of HPV type 16 (HPV16) antibodies in the general Dutch population in 2006-2007, before the introduction of mass vaccination against HPV. We used a 2-component mixture model to represent persons who were seronegative or seropositive for HPV16. Component densities were assumed to be log-normally distributed, with parameters possibly dependent on sex. The age-dependent mixing proportions were smoothed using penalized splines to obtain a flexible seroprevalence profile. RESULTS: Our results suggest that HPV16 seropositivity is associated with higher antibody concentrations in women as compared with men. Seroprevalence shows an increase starting from adolescence in men and women alike, coinciding with the age of sexual debut. Seroprevalence stabilizes in men around age 40, whereas it has a decreasing trend from age 50 onwards in women. Analyses that rely on a cut-off value to classify persons as seropositive yield substantially different seroprevalence profiles, leading to a qualitatively different interpretation of HPV16 infection dynamics. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide a benchmark for examining the effect of HPV16 vaccination in future serological surveys. Our method may prove useful for estimating seroprevalence of other infections with a weak serological response.

An experimental Toxoplasma gondii dose response challenge model to study therapeutic or vaccine efficacy in cats.

High numbers of Toxoplasma gondii oocysts in the environment are a risk factor to humans. The environmental contamination might be reduced by vaccinating the definitive host, cats. An experimental challenge model is necessary to quantitatively assess the efficacy of a vaccine or drug treatment. Previous studies have indicated that bradyzoites are highly infectious for cats. To infect cats, tissue cysts were isolated from the brains of mice infected with oocysts of T. gondii M4 strain, and bradyzoites were released by pepsin digestion. Free bradyzoites were counted and graded doses (1000, 100, 50, 10), and 250 intact tissue cysts were inoculated orally into three cats each. Oocysts shed by these five groups of cats were collected from faeces by flotation techniques, counted microscopically and estimated by real time PCR. Additionally, the number of T. gondii in heart, tongue and brains were estimated, and serology for anti T. gondii antibodies was performed. A Beta-Poisson dose-response model was used to estimate the infectivity of single bradyzoites and linear regression was used to determine the relation between inoculated dose and numbers of oocyst shed. We found that real time PCR was more sensitive than microscopic detection of oocysts, and oocysts were detected by PCR in faeces of cats fed 10 bradyzoites but by microscopic examination. Real time PCR may only detect fragments of T. gondii DNA without the presence of oocysts in low doses. Prevalence of tissue cysts of T. gondii in tongue, heart and brains, and anti T. gondii antibody concentrations were all found to depend on the inoculated bradyzoite dose. The combination of the experimental challenge model and the dose response analysis provides a suitable reference for quantifying the potential reduction in human health risk due to a treatment of domestic cats by vaccination or by therapeutic drug application.

Kinetics of the long-term antibody response after meningococcal C vaccination in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The kinetics of the antibody response induced by meningococcal serogroup C (MenC) conjugate vaccination was analysed in patients with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) to assess their long-term protection against MenC disease. METHODS: In The Netherlands, a nationwide catch-up campaign was performed in 2002 during which children aged 1-19 years, including JIA patients, received the MenC conjugate vaccination. From 127 JIA patients, IgG antibody concentrations against MenC-polysaccharide were determined by a fluorescent-bead-based immunoassay in 402 serum samples collected between 2002 and 2010. Using a hierarchical linear regression model, the 8 years course of MenC-specific antibodies was analysed in four age groups (13-19, 9-12.9, 5-8.9 and 1-4.9 years), and in patients starting with methotrexate or biologicals. In 65 randomly selected samples, the correlation of MenC-specific IgG concentrations with serum bactericidal assay (SBA) titres was assessed. MenC-specific IgG concentrations at 4.2 years after vaccination were compared with those of 1527 age-matched healthy controls. RESULTS: MenC-specific IgG concentrations postvaccination were highest in patients aged 13-19 years at time of vaccination. Antibodies gradually waned over time in patients, but their estimated concentrations at 4.2 years postvaccination were similar to those measured in controls. MenC-specific IgG concentrations correlated well with SBA titres (r=0.72, p<0.001). By contrast with methotrexate, starting treatment with biologicals induced a trend towards accelerated decline of MenC-specific antibodies. CONCLUSIONS: Persistence of MenC-specific IgG antibodies in JIA patients is similar to healthy controls, but treatment with biologicals may induce accelerated antibody waning, resulting in unprotected patients who may need revaccination.